My Economy Watch - May 2016


Here are my macro highlights from the last weeks, about worldwide economy.

ASIA (excluding China and India)

JAPAN
-24.05.2016 -Economy is on a flat trend since 2014. Increase in VAT has impacted the consumers and their spending power. Source: https://philwaechter.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/economic-outlook-may-2016.pdf

CHINA

-20.04.2016 - China undertake actions to boost exports in order to help economy. These actions include boosting lending, increasing export credit insurance and raising tax rebates for some companies. Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-idUSKCN0XH12F
-29.04.2016 - Chinese cities increase borrowing in order to fuel growth, adding concerns about the country's debt. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-debt-idUSKCN0XQ15X
-24.05.2016 - Growth in China is impacted among others by the fact that the country is shifting towards a service economy, and by an overcapacity and unsuited reactivity of industrial sectors. Source: https://philwaechter.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/economic-outlook-may-2016.pdf

EUROPE

EUROZONE
-29.04.2016 - The global economy of the 19 countries using the euro advanced 0.6 percent from January to March '16 (compared with previous quarter), according data released by European Union. Source: www.nytimes.com
-02.05.2016 - Inflation rate slows down again in Eurozone and USA. Source: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/croissance-en-zone-euro-mais-toujours-pas-dinflation-waechter
-18.05.2016 - Eurozone moved back into deflation in April '16. Source: http://www.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-slides-back-into-deflation-1463561999

FRANCE
-24.05.2016 - French economy is getting better after a long period of reduced growth. French growth intensified during first quarter of 2016. The French economy just exited a long slow growth period that occurred from 2011 to 2014. It is expected that 2016 should be a better year than 2015 in which the growth rate was 1.2%. Source: https://philwaechter.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/economic-outlook-may-2016.pdf

ITALY
-13.05.2016 - Italian GDP increased by 0.3% in Q1 2016 compared with Q4 2015, according to data released by Institut national des statistiques (Istat). GDP raised by 0.2% in Q4 2015 compared with Q3 2015. Source: http://www.latribune.fr/economie/union-europeenne/zone-euro-l-italie-retrouve-quelques-couleurs-le-portugal-au-ralenti-571225.html

GERMANY
-01.05.2016 - It is expected that German industrial output increases at a faster pace this year. Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-bdi-idUSKCN0XS18W
-13.05.2016 - German GDP increased by 0.7% in Q1 2016, strengthened by the domestic demand. Source: http://www.latribune.fr/economie/union-europeenne/allemagne-forte-croissance-au-premier-trimestre-571149.html
-24.05.2016 - German's domestic demand remains robust. Source: https://philwaechter.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/economic-outlook-may-2016.pdf

UK
-20.04.2016 - Unemployment in UK increased by 21,000 to 1.7 mio between December 2015 and February 2016 according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). UK unemployment rate remained at 5.1%. Uncertainties around Brexit may discourage companies from hiring new people according some economists. Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36090124
-03.05.2016 - Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index fell from 50.7 to 49.2 in March. Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36190226
-18.05.2016 - First minister George Osborne announced that the pound could lose nearly 12% of its value in case of victory of the "no" during referendum of June 23rd. Source: http://www.latribune.fr/economie/union-europeenne/cameron-previent-qu-un-brexit-coutera-cher-aux-vacanciers-573600.html

SPAIN
-24.05.2016 - Public deficit of Spain is efficiently managed with regards to EU requirements. Source: https://philwaechter.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/economic-outlook-may-2016.pdf

INDIA

-13.05.2016 - India GDP is projected at 7.3& in 2016. Source: http://m.businesstoday.in/story/indian-economy-to-grow-7.3-per-cent-this-year-un/1/232492.html

 MIDDLE-EAST

-25.04.2016 - Saudi Arabia approved economic reform program in order to be less dependent from oil revenues. Among others, by creating the world’s largest sovereign-wealth fund. Source: http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-approves-economic-reform-program-1461588979

NORTH AFRICA

-13.05.2016 - China and Morocco signed a cooperation agreement that covers various fields such as economics, legal, automotive, textile, aviation and logistics. Source: http://lepetitjournalmarocain.blogspot.fr/2016/05/officiel-la-chine-et-le-maroc-signe-un.html

NORTH-AMERICA

CANADA
-29.04.2016 - For the first time in five months, Canada's GDP reduced by 0.1% in February. Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-gdp-economy-february-1.3558692
-04.05.2016 - 2'100 jobs were loosed in Canada in April. Unemployment level still at 7.1%. Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-march-employment-1.3569704

USA
-15.04.2016 - Manufacturing output dropped in March '16, by the most since February '15. Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-15/manufacturing-output-in-u-s-falls-by-most-since-february-2015
-28.04.2016 - GDP increased by 0.5% in Q1 2016, the weakest since Q1 2014. Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN0XP0BQ
-02.05.2016 - US' economy is penalized by low domestic demand. Source: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/croissance-en-zone-euro-mais-toujours-pas-dinflation-waechter
-10.05.2016 - Employment slows and only 160'000 jobs were created in April '16. Business spending for basic equipment decreased in Q1 2016 at a pace not seen since 2009. Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/05/06/u-s-to-release-jobs-data-for-april/
-11.05.2016 - The median income adjusted for inflation is 53'657 dollars per household, down more than 7.5% since 2000, meaning that half of the population has a lower income figure. Source: http://institutdeslibertes.org/point-sur-leconomie-americaine-et-consequences-pour-les-elections-a-venir/
-19.05.2016 - US GDP may be below 2% in 2016, growing at a moderate rate. No sign of acceleration of economic activity in the next months. Source: https://philwaechter.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/economic-outlook-may-2016.pdf

RUSSIA AND CIS

-28.04.2016 - Russia's GDP expected to decline by 1.5% in 2016. Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-economy-poll-idUSKCN0XP1X4

SOUTHERN & SUB SAHARAN AFRICA

-13.04.2016 - China offers a $6b loan to Nigeria in order to fund projects. Source: http://thenationonlineng.net/china-offers-nigeria-6b-loan-fund-projects/



Credit photo: CC Georgie Pauwels (license)

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